WO2002005915A1

WO2002005915A1 - System and method for reliable survey taking and on-line wagering

Info

Publication number: WO2002005915A1
Application number: PCT/US2001/041153
Authority: WO
Inventors: Marcin Sawicki
Original assignee: Marcin Sawicki
Priority date: 2000-06-26
Filing date: 2001-06-26
Publication date: 2002-01-24
Also published as: AU2001273643A1

Abstract

A method (200) and system (102) for taking wagers on news event is disclose. Sent to a participant (104) are news story, central question ('CQ'), formulated as a bet, and a list of possible outcomes, to be displayed for the participant (104). The participant (104) then selects an outcome that the participants in accordance with the participants expectation. At the time of bet resolution, if the selected outcome is the actual outcome, then that participant (104) is rewarded with points. Also disclosed is a wagering system (102) connected to the participant (104) via a network (106) such as the internet. The wagering system (102) includes programs modules (111, 124, 126, 128) to connect to, register, and interface with the participant (104) as well as to formulate the CQ and the outcomes, take wagers, determine winners, and pay the winning participants (104).

Description

SYSTEM AND METHOD FOR RELIABLE SURVEY TAKING AND ON-LINE

WAGERING

Inventor: Marcin Sawicki

BACKGROUND

The present invention relates to the art of wagering, poll-taking, and on-line news delivery. More specifically, the present invention relates to the art of combining wagering with poll-taking techniques and with on-line news delivery techniques, the wagering being on questions based on real life events such as news.

Results of polls and surveys on numerous issues are becoming increasingly important in the modern information-driven age. And, participating in polls and surveys is becoming easier and quicker with the advent of the Internet. To participate in an opinion poll, one needs to merely click a few buttons on a computer mouse or a computer keyboard. By pressing the buttons, a participant visits the pollster' s web site and selects on-screen buttons reflecting the participant's opinion regarding the issue being raised.

To draw participants to various surveys and opinion polls, various pollsters and organizations offer incentives to participate. Some pollsters offer drawings for prizes for participants of a particular poll. In this case, random drawings are held from a pool of participants for awarding of prizes. Such prizes may draw the participants, but it does not provide incentive for the participants to think about the responses or the answers to the questions posed by the pollster. In other words, the participants may take the survey merely to enter the prize-pool, and provide easiest, most thoughtless responses to the posed questions.

For example, assume that an opinion poll is being taken to forecast election results for a public office (e.g., the Presidency), and that the pollster has offered a prize to a randomly selected participant. A participant may take the survey to enter the prize-pool, but provide responses that do not reflect the participant's true belief as to which candidate will be elected. This may be because the participant responds to the questions in the easiest or the quickest fashion. Or, the participant may provide intentionally misleading answers to distort the results of the poll. In any event, there is no incentive for the participant to respond to the posed questions truthfully. A concrete example may involve a survey question that asks "Who do you (the participant) believe will win the U.S. Presidential election in 2000?" The participant may respond by selecting John Anderson, a little known third party candidate, merely because Anderson's name is on the top of the alphabetically ordered list or for the purposes of skewing the survey results. There is no incentive for the participant to be truthful or thoughtful regarding his or her response.

Related but different problem faces on-line news service providers. With the advent of the Internet, many on-line news service providers are competing for the "eyeballs" of the Internet users. This is because the on-line news service providers increase advertising revenue by increasing the number of viewers, or subscribers. Similar to the poll-taking industry, the on-line news service industry is having difficulty creating and maintaining the interest of the viewers. Contests and prizes are typically one-time events and do not provide or maintain continuous interests among the subscribers or viewers. The problem is more acute for on-line news service providers competing in the push-technology market where news and information are pushed to subscribers only.

Accordingly, there is a need for a better, more reliable poll-taking technique applicable for the on-line world. And, there is a need for a good incentive system for attracting and maintaining viewers to on-line news broadcasts.

SUMMARY

These needs are met by the present invention. According to one aspect of the present invention, method for taking wagers on a news event is disclosed. First, news story relating to the news event, central question (CQ) relating to the news event, and a list of possible outcomes to the CQ is sent to be displayed and viewed by a participant. The participant selects an outcome from the list of possible outcomes. The selection is accepted. After the resolution of the CQ, if the selected outcome turns out to be correct, then the participant is paid. The CQ is based on the news story, has an actual outcome, and has a resolution time when the actual outcome can be determined. Further, the CQ is formulated as abet for which the participant may wager points. The bet has an expected resolution date and time and at least one expected closing date and time. The wager on the bet is accepted only during a period of time.

According to another aspect of the invention, a method for taking polls is disclosed. First, a central question (CQ) and a list of possible outcomes are sent to a participant for his or her viewing. The CQ has an actual outcome and an expected resolution date and time when the actual outcome can be determined. The participant's selection among the listed outcomes is accepted during a first period of time. That selection is tallied with other selections (from the same first period of time) from other participants, for a first polling result. Then, another selection, from the same or another participant is accepted during a second period of time, for a second polling result. That selection is tallied with other selections (from the same second period of time) from other participants. The two polling results are compared to determine changes of public opinion. Finally, the participants whose selected outcome is determined to be the actual outcome are payed in points. According to yet another aspect of the invention, wagering system is described. The wagering system has a processor and storage, connected to the processor. The storage contains instructions and programs which, when executed, cause the wagering system to allow the wagering system to connect with a participant, register the participant with the system, send news stories to be displayed for viewing by the participant, and formulate and send central question (CQ) and a list of possible outcomes to be displayed for the participant. The CQ is based on the news story, has an actual outcome, and has a resolution date and time when the actual outcome can be determined. The storage also has instructions and programs which, when executed, cause the wagering system to accept, during a first period of time, the participant's selection of a first outcome from the list of possible outcomes, tally the participant's selection with selections from other participants, and pay the participant if the selected first outcome is determined to be the actual outcome.

Other aspects and advantages of the present invention will become apparent from the following detailed description, taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, illustrating by way of example the principles of the invention. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

Figure 1 is a diagram illustrating a preferred embodiment of the present wagering system; and

Figure 2 is a flowchart illustrating the operations of a preferred embodiment of the present wagering system.

DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENT

As shown in the drawings for purposes of illustration, the present invention is embodied in a method of and system for combining poll-taking with wagering techniques to provide incentive for participants to provide thoughtful responses. By allowing wagering on the participants' responses to the survey questions, the system of the present invention provides incentive for the participant to respond with a thoughtful reply, thereby obtaining more reliable survey results.

The present invention is also embodied in a method of and system for combining news delivery with wagering techniques to provide incentive for participants to continue to subscribe and to view the on-line news. By allowing wagering on news stories delivered to participants by the on-line news service the system of the present invention provides incentive for the subscriber, or viewer, to continuously monitor the news from the on-line news service to track his responses to the questions posed. The present invention will be described with reference to numerous details set forth below, and the accompanying drawings will illustrate the invention. The following description and the drawings are illustrative of the invention and are not to be construed as limiting the invention. Numerous specific details are described to provide a thorough understanding of the present invention. However, in certain instances, well-known or conventional details are not described in order to avoid obscuring the present invention in unnecessary detail.

Figure 1 illustrates a simplified network 106 of computers connected to a House 102 including a wagering system of the present invention. In the preferred embodiment, the network 106 is the Internet; however, the network 106 maybe any private or public network. The House 102 may be implemented as a general computing device acting as a server. The

-A- House 102 may be the wagering system used by a pollster or by on-line news service providers. Operations of the House 102 are discussed using a flowchart 200 of Figure 2.

CONNECTION. REGISTRATION. AND POINT ACCOUNTING Referring to Figures 1 and 2, participants connect to the House 102 via the network

106 using a computer 104. For example, participant 104 connects to the House 102 via the network 106. The House 102 is connected to the network 106 via a communications device 108. The communications device 108 is connected to a processor 110. The processor 110 is connected to storage, or memory, 112. The storage 112 includes programs, or instructions, for the processor 112 to perform the functions discussed below as well as information regarding the participants, wagers, news, and survey results. The storage 112 apparatus may be computer memory such as random access memory (RAM), or more permanent storage such as magnetic tape or disk, optical disk, or other forms of machine storage apparatus.

First, the participant 104 establishes connection to the House 102 via the network 106. Procedural block 201 of Figure 2. In the preferred embodiment, the participant 104 connects to the House 102 by linking to a web page maintained by the House 102. The House 102 maymaintain web pages 142, orwebsites, within the storage 112. The web pages 142 may be static or dynamically created when the participant 104 connects to the House 102. A communications interface module 122 mayinclude instructions for the processor 110 to allow connections to the participant 104. The connection may include secure connection techniques such as SSL (Secure Socket Layer) protocol.

REGISTRATION AND NEW ACCOUNT

In order to take advantage of the House's services and promotions, and to participate in the surveys, the participant 104 may be required to register with the House 102. Procedural block 201 of Figure 2. Registration process may involve the participant 104 filling out on-line forms and submitting the forms to the House 102. During the registration process, the House 102 collects the participant's personal data for tracking, account maintenance, and award assignment purposes. Also, the House 102 may collect information regarding the participant's preferences and buying patterns in order to offer targeted advertising to the participant 104. Anyone may participate, but there may be age restrictions on participation in certain activities or redemption of certain prizes including, without limitation, frequent flyer miles or coupons. During registration, the participant 104 maybe required to accept a Terms of Use Agreement (the "Agreement"). The Agreement may be available for review at a known web page maintained by the House 102. A set of instructions 124 for the processor 110 to register the participant 104 may also be stored in the memory 112.

Once the participant 104 submits the required forms and becomes approved, a participant record 144 may be created within a database 140. Also, a new account 146 may be created for him or her in the House's database 140. The new account for the participant 104 may not be opened and the participant 104 may not be allowed to use the service if he or she does not accept the Agreement, h the preferred embodiment, the House 102 may maintain the account 146 of points earned for each of the registered participants. The account 146 of points may include points earned by the participant 104 by participating in surveys or by correctly wagering on various issues or questions posed by the House 102. The account also may keep track of the number of points assigned to the participant 104 and of wagers the participant 104 has placed. When the new participant 104 registers with the House 102, the House 102 may award him with some initial number of points. The collected information regarding the registered participant and his or her account information may be maintained as participant records 144 within the storage 112 of the House 102. A set of instructions 126 for the processor 110 to maintain the participant accounts 144 may also be stored in the memory 112. Each participant may be given a participant ID for identification purposes.

After the registration, when the participant 104 connects to the House 102, the House 102 may send, to be displayed for the participant 104, news events, stories, stock quotes, advertising, other information. Procedural step 204. This would be important for push- technology service providers. In this document, phrase "news story" is used in a general, non-limiting sense to indicate any and all information relating to events, information, financial quotes, competition results, advertising, or other information available or deemed valuable by the House 102. Likewise, "news event" is used in a general, non-limiting sense to indicate any and all happenings, incidents, or occurrences.

THE POINT SYSTEM In the preferred embodiment, the surveys and promotions are presented to the participant 104 as "games" for which the participant 104 may wager and gain points. And, the accounting and wagering for the participant 104 registered with the House 102 may be tracked using points. The points are symbolic measure of the participant's success at the wagering game and enable him or her to continue participating in the game. Since the House 102 issues points based on the correctness of the participant's responses to the survey questions, the participant's responses maybe referred to as the participant's "bet." When the participant 104 places a wager in a bet, the value of the wager is determined by the points wagered on the bet. The points are assigned to the participant 104 by the House 102 and may or may not be convertible to cash. Preferably, the points may be redeemed for promotional gifts or items that the House 102 may offer. The promotional items may include, without limitation, frequent flyer miles, coupons, discounts, merchandise, etc. There may be other limitations or restrictions to the redemption of the points for certain promotional items. The promotional items maybe used as advertising vehicles. The House 102 may also offer extra points for sale to interested participants for a fee. The House 102 may determine the price, the availability, and the maximum number of points available for purchase by any individual participant.

ACCOUNT ACCESS AND REVIEW

The House 102 may make the participant accounts 142 available for viewing using the web pages 142. Each participant's access to his or her account may be protected by a password. The account pages may show the number of points available to the participant 104 for wagering as well as the number of points redeemable for promotional gifts such those discussed above. The account access web page may allow the participant 104 to redeem qualifying points for those promotional items. The redemption functions may be implemented by displaying a form field, a button, or a hyperlink that initiates the conversion process when selected by the participant 104. The account access web page may also show a list of unresolved wagers that the participant 104 has placed. Additionally, the account access web pages may show pointers to, and titles of, online news articles relevant to areas that the participant 104 has expressed interest in or placed wagers in. A set of instructions 128 for the processor 110 to maintain the participant accounts 144 may also be stored in the memory.

CENTRAL QUESTION BETS. AND WAGERS

BETS AND WAGERS

For the purposes of discussion, the following definitions of the words "bet" and "wager" are used herein. A "bet" is an invitation, formulated as a question, for one or more people to express their beliefs as to whether or not an event specified in a presented question will take place before or by a specified date, time, or date and time. A bet may be thought of as a survey question on which the participant 104 may wager points for reward if proven correct. That is, while survey participants merely express their belief, bet participants receive some sort of a reward for being right when the outcome becomes known, or they may be punished by losing something they originally promised to give up, if their belief is proven wrong. A "wager" is a bet participant's expression of their belief as to the outcome of a bet, usually combined with a promise to surrender something if that belief is proven wrong. Preferably, the bet participant wagers points.

For the purposes of the present invention, nothing-to-lose wagers may be allowed. That is, the participant 104 may wager zero points. However, in the preferred embodiment, the participant 104 may still gain points if he or she wins. The House 102 may allow nothing-to-lose wagers for promotional or other purposes. And, nothing-to-lose wagers may be useful for surveys where the participant 104 does not wish to wager his or her points but wishes to participate and win additional points.

FORMATION AND SELECTION OF CENTRAL QUESTION As already discussed, the House 102 may be run by an on-line news service provider.

In that case, the House 102, via the network 106, may send news stories, articles, or hyperlinks regarding various news events to the participant 104. Procedural block 204 of

Figure 2. These news stories may be displayed on the participant's computer 104 as streaming news or as a web page hosted by the House 102.

Based on the news stories or news events underlying the news stories, central questions ("CQs") may be formed by the House 102. Procedural block 202. The formation of the CQs and their parameters are detailed below. The parameters may include, without limitation, a list of possible outcomes, bet ids, closing dates, current odds, and links and references to stories and articles regarding the underlying news event. The CQs may be formed when the participant 104 connects to the House 102. However, it is more likely that the House 102 would have formulated the CQs and determined the parameters for each of the CQs prior to the participant's connection to the House 102. And, the CQs and their parameters may be stored in the House's database 140, for example, in datablock 148. In fact, the CQ formation, step 202, may be independent of the participant's activities with the House 102. The Central Question ("CQ") is then sent to the participant 104 to be displayed along with the news or links to the news. Procedural block 204 of Figure 2. In fact, in the preferred embodiment, the underlying news stories, or at least hyperlinks to the underlying new stories, maybe displayed at the same time as the CQ or the wager entry form containing the CQ.

The CQ's may be displayed as a simplified wager entry form alongside a related news article (or links to the related news stories) on the display. The appearance of the bet entry on the same page as the related news article will encourage the participant 104 to participate in the related bet. It will also make it much easier to participate in such a bet. The wager entry form may include a central question ("CQ") and a list of possible outcomes for the CQ. Procedural block 204 of Figure 2. The central question and the list of possible outcomes are formulated by the House 102 before being sent to the participant 104. Preferably, the CQ has an actual outcome which is one of the possible outcomes listed, hi the preferred embodiment, the actual outcome of the CQ can be determined at a resolution time. The House 102 selects and formulates the central questions, the list of possible outcomes, and the related bets. The formulation is based on the House's discretion and best judgment. Preferably, the House 102 selects bets whose future outcomes cannot be easily affected by the House 102 or the participant 104. In the preferred embodiment, it should not be in the financial interest of the House 102 for a bet to turn out one way or the other. If it were so, then the House 102 loses its objectivity and cannot conduct an objective poll or survey. Typically, the House 102 makes its bet selections based on their entertainment, educational, and general interest value of the subject matter. For example, the bets may be based on the following topics: • Political events (e.g., will treaty X be signed? Will Mr. X be elected President? Will

Congress pass bill X?);

• Business events (e.g., will company X acquire company Y? Will company X declare a stock split this week? Will the Product Price Index be smaller than X this month?);

• Scientific discoveries (e.g., will life on Mars be discovered by the end of the decade? Will water be found by space probe X on the Moon?);

• Natural phenomena (e.g., will it rain on Jan 1, 2000 in city X? Will there be a 7+ degree earthquake in city X by Jan. 1, 2001? Will Mt. X explode next year?); or

• Sporting events (e.g., will team X win the SuperBowl? Will Mr. X score more than 70 points in game Y?).

Preferably, the House 102 selects bets based on events whose actual outcomes, when they occur, are easily verifiable by the general public at the resolution time. The House 102 may provide pointers to news sources, external or proprietary, that provide the verification. It is the participant's responsibility, however, to learn the background of a bet and conduct the proper research that will enable the participant 104 to make an educated guess as to the bet's outcome.

Once the House 102 formulates a bet (from the underlying CQ) and makes it available for the participant 104 to participate in, the bet is considered open. When a bet is open, any registered participant may place a wager in that bet. Each bet may be formulated as a question, usually in the future tense. In the preferred embodiment, for each bet, there will only be two possible outcomes: (1) yes, the event will take place or (2) no, the event will not take place. However, there may be more than two possible outcomes.

For example, suppose a news article about the possibility of life on Mars appears on a website. The news article provider may include a simple wager form near the article (below, above, to the side of, or within the article) or on the same page as the article that enables the reader to place a wager in a related CQ such as "Will life on Mars be discovered by 2001?" The wager form would point to the bet, list its title, bet ID, and simple instructions, as deemed necessary by the House 102 that organizes the bet. The CQs, their associated Outcomes, and Bet IDs may be kept in the House's database 140 as indicated by reference numeral 148.

CENTRAL QUESTION CATEGORIES

In the preferred embodiment, the bets are grouped into a number of categories, depending on the nature of the bet. For example, the bets maybe grouped into the following categories:

• Politics - comprising of bets of political nature, such as election results, treaty signings, presidential vetoes, declarations of war, military actions, bills passed by Congress, etc. For example, CQs in this category may include the following:

Will George W. Bush be elected President in 2000? Will the U.S. Congress cut income taxes in 2000?

• Science - comprising of bets of scientific nature, such as astronomical discoveries, results of experiments, Nobel prize nominations, weather related events, etc. For example, CQs in this category may include the following:

Will life on lo be discovered by the end of the year 2000? Will an American win the next Nobel prize in Physics?

• Disasters - comprising of bets about natural or human induced disasters, such as earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, airline accidents, murders, terrorist acts, etc. For example, CQs in this category may include the following:

Will there be a 7+ earthquake by the year 2001 in San Francisco? Will the FAA determine that a bomb caused the TWA800 crash by

2005? • Business - comprising of bets of business or economic nature, such as stock market performance, mergers, stock splits, corporate management changes, contracts, corporate or government lawsuits, etc. For example, CQs in this category may include the following: Will MICROSOFT® reach a settlement with the U.S. Department of

Justice before the final verdict? Will YAHOO® announce a stock split before July 2000?

• Entertainment - comprising of bets of entertainment nature, such as Oscar nominations, Tony Awards nominations, celebrity marriages and divorces, movie profits, etc. For example, CQ's in this category may include the following:

Will the movie AMERICAN BEAUTY® win at least one OSCAR® in 2000?

Will GODZILLA® be a profitable movie in 1999?

• Sports - comprising of bets related to the world of sports, such as winners of competitions, tournaments, the Olympics, contract signings, team member trades, coach changes, etc.

Will the U.S. win more than 50 medals at the next Olympic Games? Will the Seattle MARINERS® get a new coach before July 2000?

EXPECTED CLOSING DATE AND TIME (ECDT)

When the House 102 formulates and opens a new bet, the House 102 may assign a future date and time to the bet that will serve as the expected date and time when the bet will be closed (Expected Closing Date and Time, ECDT). When the bet is closed, then no more new wagers may be placed in it. For example, the House 102 may open the following bet:

"Will Al Gore be elected President of the USA in 2000?"

Since the answer to this question will be known by November 8, 2000, the House 102 preferably picks an ECDT that is prior to November 8, 2000, so that no more wagers maybe placed after the outcome is known. For example, the House 102 may pick October 31 , 2000,

11 :59PM as the ECDT. After that date, no new wagers should be accepted in the above bet. EXPECTED RESOLUTION DATE AND TIME (ERDT)

A bet's Expected Resolution Date and Time (ERDT) - is the expected date and time by which the outcome of the bet will be known. A bet's ERDT should follow (rather than precede) the bet's ECDT. This is because the bet first needs to be closed to new wagers before the bet outcome becomes known. In other words, bet resolution takes place after bet closing.

For some bets, even though the outcome is not known in advance, the date by which that outcome will be known is known long in advance. For example, while one can never tell for sure who the next President of the U.S. will be, the answer to that question will be known by November 8th of the election year, since this is required by law.

There is a class of bets however for which not only is the outcome not known in advance, but also no reliable predictions are possible as to the date and time when that outcome will be known. For example, consider a bet with the following CQ:

"Will life be found elsewhere in the Solar System?"

While life may or may not be eventually found in the Solar System, it is impossible to predict when exactly a proof of either of the two possible outcomes will be available, hi a case like this, it is therefore impossible to set an ERDT that will accurately correspond to the date and time when evidence of life or of the lack thereof will be found. Nevertheless, a bet with a CQ of this nature could be very interesting to play. But in order for such a bet to be feasible and to attract short-term interest to it, rather than have participants wait for years or decades for its final outcome, the House 102 may impose a predetermined ERDT on the bet that occurs within a relatively short and well-defined period of time. For example, the above bet could have its ERDT set to December 31 , 2000. This would effectively change the meaning of the CQ to:

"Will life be found elsewhere in the Solar System before the year - 2001?"

In other words, if life is found elsewhere in the Solar System before the year 2001, the Yes side wins. If life is not found by that time, the No side wins. Accordingly, participants will know whether they won or not on a predetermined date and time, in this case, December 31, 2000.

BETID Each bet may be assigned a Bet ID — a unique, preferably easy to remember, alphanumeric ID. Bet IDs enable quick access to specific bets in the database and serve to differentiate one bet from other similar bets. For example, bet ID's may consist of a combination of digits, letters of the alphabet and punctuation marks. In a prefened embodiment, bet ID's do not however include spaces or any white space in general (such as tabs, new line characters, etc.). To keep the bet ID's easy to remember, they are preferably no more than a certain small number of characters in length, for example: 20. The characters comprising the bet ID may be grouped into meaningful chunks. The chunks may conespond to different properties of the bet. Punctuation marks or other separators may be used to separate those chunks from each other. For example, bet ID's may consist of two chunks: one corresponding to the CQ ofthe bet and the other corresponding to the ECDT of the bet. The CQ chunk may consist of fragments of words from the actual CQ. For example, the CQ:

"Will George W. Bush be elected President in 2000?" may be represented by sequence: BUSH2000

Uppercase letters, lowercase letters, or a combination of both maybe used. The ECDT part may consist of some representation ofthe ECDT, such as the digits forming the date and the time ofthe expected bet closing arranged in a particular order. For example, the ECDT: Oct 31 , 2000, 9:00 AM may be represented in the bet ID as: 0010310900

Sometimes it may not be necessary to represent the time in a bet ID. This may happen when the bet is of a class that is known to be closed always at a particular time, such as 12:00AM. Then the fragment ofthe bet ID representing the time is not necessary. The reverse is true as well - if a bet ID does not have any characters representing the time, then that implies that the ECDT ofthe bet occurs at a fixed time determined by the House 102 and common for all bets with such "time-less" ID's. For example, the following sequence:

001031 maybe assumed to mean some widely known and predetermined time, such as 12:00AM, on October 31, 2000.

The various chunks ofthe bet ID maybe grouped together to form a complete bet ID. For clarity and to avoid ambiguity, the bet ID chunks may be separated using a punctuation mark or a separator character such as the period "." Using the examples above, the complete bet ID ofthe aforementioned bet may be:

BUSH2000.001031

Alternatively, bet IDs may consist of only one chunk, for example the one corresponding to the CQ, especially if there are no other bets with the same CQ. For example:

BUSH2000

SAME CENTRAL QUESTION - DIFFERENT CLOSING TIMES The House 102 may open multiple bets about exactly the same subject matter (i.e., with the same central question CQ), but with different expected closing dates (ECDT). For example, there may be two different bets with the following CQ: Will Al Gore be elected President of the USA in 2000?

One ofthe bets mayhave its ECDT set to October 31, 2000, 11:59 P.M., but the other mayhave its ECDT set to May 1, 2000, 11:59P.M. There are advantages of, and reasons for, opening multiple bets with the same CQ but different ECDT. One advantage is the ability to anticipate unexpected events. Having bets with different ECDT's helps keep the bets meaningful and interesting even if some unexpected event takes place that drastically affects the odds ofthe bet. For example, in order to be even considered for U.S. Presidency, Al Gore must first win the Democratic Primary, which will take place several months before the presidential election. If Al Gore loses the Democratic Primary, then the eventual outcome ofthe above bet with the ECDT of October 31 , 2000, 11 :59 P.M. would be obviously negative. Thus the bet with the ECDT that occurs after the Democratic primary may become very uninteresting as soon as the results ofthe primary are known. If it remains open, then participants will have no reason at all to place wagers on the Yes side anymore, but every reason to place wagers on the No side. A bet like that should be closed by the House 102 before its original ECDT in order to save participants who placed the correct wager before the Democratic primary from a dilution of their potential profits. Accordingly, there may arise situations and CQs where multiple ECDT may be useful.

Another reason for having bets with the same CQ but different ECDT's comes from chances that there may be unforseen events that may have significant effects on the eventual outcome ofthe bet. The House 102 may make the betting game much more interesting and rewarding for its participants if it opens multiple bets with the same CQ but different ECDT' s in seriatim. For example, using the Al Gore example again, the CQ of:

Will Al Gore be elected President of the USA in 2000? and an ECDT of March 1, 2000, 11:59 P.M. When that date arrives and the House 102 closes the bet, suppose that the total wagers placed in the bet turn out to be: YES: 1000 NO: 800

A day later, on March 2, the House 102 may open a new bet with the same CQ, but an ECDT of March 16. Now suppose that an unexpected event takes place between March

1 and March 16. For example, Al Gore breaks a leg while skiing. This event may trigger a suspicion in the minds ofthe participants that Gore might quit the presidential race. So when this new bet closes on March 16, the total wagers placed may be:

YES: 500 NO: 1000

Suppose, for the purposes of this discussion, Al Gore fails to win the election in November 2000, the bet is resolved. Winning participants (participants who wagered on the NO side) for the CQ having ECDT of March 1, maybe awarded 2.25 points. Preferably, the winning participants are awarded the points wagered (here, 1 point) plus the bet ratio (here, 1.25 points for every point wagered because the ratio of wagers was 1.25 to 1 against the NO bet). In comparison, winning participants (participants who wagered on the NO side) for the CQ having ECDT of March 16, maybe awarded 1.5 points for every point wagered because the ratio of wagers was 1 to 0.5 against the NO bet. Thus, while both groups ofthe winning participants on the No side win something, participants that took a greater risk of betting at a time when the odds were against them are rewarded more for taking that risk than participants who placed their wagers when the odds were in their favor. Hence, the system of multiple bets with the same CQ but different ECDTs, rather than a single bet with one ECDT, is more rewarding to the winners who bet against the odds and still win, and thus more interesting to participate.

Moreover, by analyzing the wager patterns for a CQ for different periods of time, survey takers may learn trends of change in public opinion.

BET VIEWING

The House 102 may make all bets available for viewing via its website. Anyone with access to the Internet and a browser, or an appropriate program, may view them. The following infonnation that may comprise "a bet" in a bet database may be shown on the bet screen:

• the subject question ofthe bet, for example:

Will - George W. Bush be elected President in 2000?

• the two possible outcomes, formulated as Yes or No answers, so that the person viewing the bet may immediately initiate his or her wager placement in that bet by clicking the Yes or No button or hyperlink.

• the expected closing date time ofthe bet (ECDT) as well as the expected resolution date/time (ERDT).

• the current ratio of the total values of the 'Yes' wagers to the 'No' wagers. For example, suppose that three wagers were placed on the 'Yes' - side with the following values: Yes 50 points Yes 30 points Yes 20 points Total Yes 100 points Additionally, 4 wagers were placed on the 'No' side of the same bet with the following point values:

No 10 points

No 20 points

No 15 points No 30 points

Total No 75 points

Then the current ratio - ofthe 'Yes' wagers to the 'No' wagers could be shown as:

4

3

• explanations along the following lines may be shown as well, for example:

Each point wagered on the 'Yes' side is worth 1.75 point if it wins; or Each point wagered on the 'No' side is worth 2.25 points if it wins.

• titles of, and pointers to, relevant news stories of events that may have an effect on the eventual outcome ofthe bet, or news stories confirming the outcome, if one is known.

WAGERS

Using the wager entry forms discussed above, the House 102 may accept a participant's selection of one ofthe outcomes. Procedural step 206. The selection maybe tallied. Procedural step 208. Tallying the selection may include, without limitation, keeping a count of the number of participants selecting each of the presented possible outcomes. And, the outcome selection maybe added to or compared with a set of selections including selections of other participants ofthe same CQ or the same bet. The tally may lead to polling or survey results. As indicated by procedural step 214 and 216, the wagering or surveying may be repeated for different CQs or during different periods of time. And, of course, the second wager from the same participant or another participant may be added to or compared with another set of selections including selections of other participants ofthe same CQ or the same bet during the second period. If the same CQ wagering is conducted during the second period, then the polling results from the second period may be compared with the polling results from the earlier survey (the first survey) to detect opinion trends. This type of analysis ofthe survey results or wagers are indicated by procedural block 210 of Figure 2.

The steps 204 and 206 may be repeated for different Central Questions as indicated by line 214. And, the steps 204 and 206 may be repeated for same CQ but for a different period of time defined by a different expected closing date times as indicated by line 216.

TRADITIONAL WAGERS

A participant may choose which bets to participate in. The participant places a wager in a bet by following these steps :

(1). Identifying the bet. The participant can identify a bet using its bet id, or finding it via a 'Find' feature ofthe website, or navigating to it through the list of bet categories. (2). Selecting 'Yes' or 'No' side of the bet. This can be accomplished by checking the appropriate check box or clicking the 'Yes' or 'No' hyperlink on the wager entry form. (3). Entering wager amount in points. This is accomplished by typing the desired amount into a form field on the wager entry form. (4). Submitting the wager. This is accomplished by clicking an appropriate Submit button.

The participant may participate in a plurality of bets at the same time. Moreover, the participant may be allowed by the House 102 to place a plurality of wagers on either side of a bet: the 'yes' side, or the 'no' side. The participant may also be allowed to place an unlimited number of wagers on either or both sides of a bet at different points in time.

In bets where the participant is required to wager points, the participant may choose the number of points to wager. The House 102 may impose minimum, maximum, or both limitations on the wager amount for a particular participant. The minimum or the maximum maybe arbitrary. In the preferred embodiment, the minimum requirement and the maximum limits may be determined by the account balance of each participant, and may be used to encourage proper risk management. The participant may not freely withdraw any wagers or parts thereof. The House 102 may require any participant to accept a statement that at the time of wager entry the participant has no knowledge ofthe outcome ofthe bet and that he or she will not attempt to affect the outcome ofthe bet. The participant may also be required to accept a statement that he or she understands that his or her wager may be denied by the House 102 at the House's sole discretion. The participant may accept such a statement by clicking an appropriate button on the statement screen.

NOTHING-TO-LOSE WAGERS

The House 102 may make it possible for a participant to place wagers in a bet without committing any points to them. In the case of such a wager, if the participant's side loses, the participant does not give up any points. If the participant's side wins, the participant may be awarded with a certain number of points from the House 102, even though the participant did not commit any points to the wager.

There are a number of reasons why it could be in the interest of the House 102 to allow wagers of this nature. First, the main point ofthe betting game described herein may be news delivery promotion and survey taking, not betting. Accordingly, the House 102 may give out points to the participant without taking any away because the source ofthe House's revenues lies in the promotional aspects of the game, not in the participant's losses or winnings. The House's main source of revenue may lie in selling advertising and news service placement on its website to third parties or selling results ofthe survey. By giving out points to winning participants without taking points from losing participants, the House 102 encourages participation.

Another advantage of making "nothing-to-lose" wagers available to participants is simplicity. Wagers where the participant is not required to think about how many points they should commit are much easier for people to understand and engage in. Wagers of such nature are also easier to administer and track.

WAGER PROPERTIES

Each wager may be represented as a record 150 in the database 140. The wager record 150 may include, without limitation, the following information: participant IDs of all who placed a wager; bet ID the wager was placed in; outcome selection flag that indicates whether the wager is on the Yes side or on the No side ofthe bet; number of points wagered; wager type flag that indicates whether the wager is a traditional "point-backed" wager or a "nothing-to-lose" wager (in which the participant commits no points); time and date when the wager was placed; odds ofthe bet at the time the wager was placed; and unique wager ID.

ODDS-SENSITIVE WAGERS

Presenting odds-sensitive wagers may be allowed in the present invention. Instead of opening multiple bets with the same CQ but different ECDT's, the House 102 may choose to open just a single bet for a given CQ with a single ECDT and treat the wagers placed in it as "odds-sensitive." An "odds-sensitive" wager is a wager for which the House 102 registers the current odds of the bet at the time of wager entry in order to use them in calculating the reward for that wager at the time of bet resolution. Effectively, an odds-sensitive wager combines the best of both worlds: it has the simplicity of a single ECDT as well as the ability to reward risk-taking winners. This is because the number of points each winning participant receives depends on not only the amount wagered by that participant and the eventual odds ofthe bet, but also on the odds at the time the participant placed that winning wager. RESOLUTION AND REWARDING WINNER

The House 102 eventually closes every open bet. The House 102 may determine when a bet should be closed. When a bet is closed, no new wagers may be placed, nor any other changes can be made. A closed bet is a bet that is frozen in time. Normally, the House 102 closes a bet when the bet's outcome becomes known, is about to be known, or the previously announced deadline for wager placements (ECDT) has arrived. In the preferred embodiment, the House 102 reserves the right to close any bet at any time for any reason and completely at the House's discretion. This may be especially relevant in situations when the outcome of a bet can no longer be easily determined or when fraud is suspected. When the House 102 becomes aware ofthe outcome of a bet, or when the previously announced ERDT ofthe bet occurs, the House 102 resolves the bet. At that time, the House 102 distributes winnings among winning participants. The following three sections describe the methods that the House 102 may employ to distribute the winnings among the winners. Procedural block 212 of Figure 2.

RETROACTIVE BET CLOSING (CUTOFF)

Bet closing may be retroactive. That is, the House 102 may set a certain cutoff time that occurred before the time of closing. Wagers that entered after the cutoff time become canceled as if they had not been placed. In such a situation, participants whose wagers were cut off will receive their wagered points back.

The retroactive closing maybe necessary for certain bets because real life events may occur unexpectedly and before the previously announced ECDT. The ability to close a bet retroactively enables the House 102 to ensure that wagers that are placed after the outcome is known to the general public are not valid.

REWARDING TRADITIONAL WAGERS

Traditional wagers (wagers that had a non-zero number of points committed to them by a participant) may be rewarded as follows: each of wimiing participants participating in the bet receives a number of points that represent the same percentage ofthe total pool of all traditional wagers as the percentage that the participant's original wager constituted in the pool ofthe traditional wagers on the winning side ofthe bet. More specifically, let

Y = the total amount of traditional wagers placed on one outcome (Yes) ofthe bet; N = the total amount of traditional wagers placed on the opposite outcome (No) ofthe bet; y = the amount ofthe participant's traditional wager in the Y pool

Then the number of points that participant is awarded, w, may be determined as follows: w = y/Y * (Y + N)

In other words, for each point wagered (thus, y=l) by the winning participant in a winning traditional wager, the participant receives a number of points equal to: w = 1 + N/Y

On the other hand, all the points that the participant placed in a losing wager are taken away from the participant.

The wimiing participant's account is then credited with all the points won, which become available for other bets or redeemable for promotional items provided that the participant meets all the other requirements for such promotions.

REWARDING WINNERS OF NOTHING-TO-LOSE WAGERS

Wagers that do not have points committed to them by their participants, but were merely expressions ofthe participants' opinion as to the eventual outcome, maybe rewarded. This is to encourage participation even when the participant may not wish to bet. And, a reward, even for nothing-to-lose wagers, may provide incentive for the participant to provide thoughtful responses to the CQs being waged on, thus leading to more reliable survey results.

The reward for nothing-to-lose wagers may be determined as follows: First, the House 102 may determine how many total points to distribute among the winners. This amount may be based directly or indirectly on factors such as, but not limited to:

• total number of wagers placed in the bet; and • actual or expected revenue the House 102 received from administering the bet.

Then, the House 102 may choose the method by which to distribute the winnings among the winners. The House 102 may:

• give an equal number of points to each wimiing participant; • give each winning participant a number of points that depends on his or her past perfonnance; for example, participants that have placed winning wagers more than half the time may be rewarded more than participants who lose most ofthe time; or

• give each winning participant a number of points that are related to the odds at the time the wagers were made.

Since the participants did not risk any points, the House 102 maybe free to select any method to determine the reward. The odds-sensitive reward for nothing-to-lose wagers may be implemented using various methods. For example, a nothing-to-lose wager may be deemed, for the purposes of determining odds and reward, to be a wager with a default, predetennined, amount, for example 10 points. Then, such wagers can be treated the same way as point-backed odds-sensitive wager. A preferred method of determining the reward for odds-sensitive wagers is detailed below. Alternatively, the sensitive reward for nothing- to-lose wagers may be implemented by having the House 102 lend a predetermined number of points to a participant at the time of the wager. Then, if the participant wins, the load amount (in points) is reclaimed by the House 102 with the participant keeping the rest ofthe winnings. If the participant does not win, then the loan is forgiven.

The House 102 may impose an upper limit on the number of points an individual participant may be awarded in a given time period.

REWARDING WINNERS OF ODDS-SENSITIVE WAGERS Rewards for "odds-sensitive" wagers maybe distributed in the following manner at the time of bet resolution:

(1) All points, Amount(j), that were wagered on the losing side of the bet are added together to form TotalAmountL: TotalAmountL = Amount(l) + Amount(2) + ... Amount(l) where 1 is the number of all wagers placed in the bet on the losing side.

(2) The odds-value, OddsYN(i), of each winning wager i that was recorded with the wager at the time of wager entry is converted into the amount that wager would have won if that odds value had been still in effect, and stored with the wager as Return(i,

Side(i)) for the purposes ofthe rest of this computational process. More specifically, if:

OddsYN(i) is the term representing the i^th winning wager's odds value ("Yes'"es to "No'"s); Amount(i) is the term representing the number of points wagered in winning wager i; Side(i) is the term representing the side of the bet on which the winning wager i was placed ("Yes" or "No"); and Return(i, X) represents the number of points the winning wager on side X would have won at those odds, then:

(A) Return(i, "No") = Amount® * (OddsYN(i) + 1); or

(B) Return(i, "Yes") = Amount(i) * (OddsYN(i) + l)/OddsYN(i)

Note that only one of the above two formulas (A) or (B) is used for a given bet, depending on whether the "Yes" side or the "No" side ofthe bet won.

(3) all the Return(i, Side(i)) values obtained using step (2) are added together, to form the value of TotalReturn where the TotalReturn is TotalReturn = Return(l, Side(l)) + Return(2, Side(2)) + ... + Return(m, Side(m)) where m is the total number of winning wagers.

(4) Participant of each winning wager i is awarded a number of points, Award(j), equal to the sum of Amount(i) that he wagered and the product of Return(i, Side(i)) from step (2) and TotalAmountL from step (1), divided by TotalReturn from step (3): Award(i) = Amount(i) + Returnri, Side(i)) * TotalAmountL / TotalReturn

Note that it would be incorrect to stop at step (3) and award wimiing wagers the

Return(i, Sideri)) value. This is because the sum of those values is likely to be different from the sum of all wagered amounts. In order however for the distribution method to use all the points and only those points that were actually wagered, all the Return() values should be "normalized." Only after normalization ofthe Return() values, the total value ofthe awards is equal to the total value of all wagers. The normalization is accomplished by step (4) by awarding the winning participant all the points wagered by the winning participant plus a portion ofthe losing wagers that is proportional not only to the value of his contribution to the winning wagers but also to the odds at the time he placed his winning wager.

The following example maybe used to illustrate this process. In the TABLE 1 below, each row represents a wager placed in a bet in which the No side eventually won. All wager entries are arranged in chronological order, with the top entries being the earliest. The following table, DEFINITION TABLE, define the columns of TABLE 1.

DEFINITION TABLE

TABLE 1 (Example with N side winning)

In TABLE 1, the first ten wagers reveal a bias toward the "Yes" side. As a result, the odds for the first ten wagers are mostly in favor ofthe "Yes" side. After wager 15 more points are starting to be wagered on the "No" side. By wager 16, the odds are now in favor ofthe "No" side. A reason for such change in the wagering pattern may be that an unexpected event took place that in the minds of participants has now made the "No" outcome ofthe bet more likely. But this is exactly a situation where the odds-sensitive wagering system comes into play. In order to reward the No-wagers that were placed before wager 15, the Return(i) value of each wager at the time that wager was placed can now be used to reward the appropriate participant for taking the risk of wagering against the odds.

For example, examine wager 8. The odds at the time that wager was placed were 1.5 (or 3 :2) against the wager. If this bet had been resolved immediately following the wager 8, wager 8 would have been awarded 2.5 points for each point wagered, or 37.5 points total. Here, the bet was not resolved until after wager 20. Odds at the time of bet resolution (after wager 20) are now in favor ofthe No-side (.67, or 2:3) and have been so for the previous 5 wagers. If odds at the time ofthe wager are not taken into account, participant of wager 8 would be paid 25 points (15*1.67 = 25), not 37.5 points he or she would have been paid had the bet been closed immediately following wager 8.

However when the odds-sensitive correction is applied, the participant of wager 8 receives 27.79 points, which, though less than the 37.5, is more than the 25 it would receive without the odds-sensitive correction. Effectively, wager 8 receives 1.85 points for each point wagered.

Note also that participant of wager 20 is now being "penalized" for wagering with the odds in its favor. He or she is awarded only 15.68 points, and not the 16.67 he or she would have been paid but for the odds-sensitive correction. In other words, the participant of wager 20 is receiving 1.57 points for each point wagered instead of 1.67. This is because wager 20 (for No) was placed when the trend, therefore the odds, were in favor of No.

Thus the above example illustrates the odds-sensitive wagering and reward distribution method, and shows how risk takers are rewarded without the need for multiple ECDTs. OTHER FUNCTIONS OF THE House 102

House 102 MAY CANCEL BETS

The House 102 may cancel any of its bets, open or closed, at any time, solely at its own discretion. Possible factors that may cause the House 102 to cancel a bet include but are not limited to the following:

• evidence or reasonable suspicion of fraud or intentional activity on the part of one or more participants that may have a significant effect on the betting patterns of other participants, the outcome ofthe bet, or both; • evidence or reasonable suspicion that some previously unaccounted for factors have made it impossible to determine the outcome ofthe bet; or

• evidence or reasonable suspicion that one or more participants may have acquired the knowledge ofthe outcome ofthe bet before the House 102 did and the participant(s) took advantage of that knowledge by placing new wagers.

In the preferred embodiment, the House 102 is not obligated to make public any of its reasons for the cancellation, though it is considered good practice for the House 102 to do so. The House 102 may return all the points that had been wagered in a canceled bet.

PROMOTIONS

The House 102 may make it possible for participants with sufficient amounts of points to redeem some of their points for frequent flyer miles. The point-to-mile rate at which such an exchange is possible is determined by the House 102. In the preferred embodiment, the House 102 determines the exchange rate between the points and the promotional items or gifts. The House 102 should be free to establish a point threshold below which no participant is qualified to receive frequent flyer miles or other gifts. That threshold may be variable and is entirely under the control ofthe House 102.

The House 102 may make it possible for qualifying participants to convert some of their points to promotional store discounts, coupons, gift certificates, subscriptions and other third party services. The House 102 may go into business contracts with third parties for this purpose.

PARTICIPANT CONDUCT GUIDELINES The House's services may be provided for entertainment purposes. Participants' purposes in using the services is preferably for leisure, enjoyment, and education. The participants preferably do not commit fraud or intentionally engage in any activity whose purpose is to affect the outcome of the bet or the proper functioning of the services. The participants preferably do not participate in bets whose outcomes have already occurred and are known to him/her. The participants who do not play by the rules is preferably disciplined or denied the services.

SMALL BETTING GROUPS

The House 102 may make it possible for participants to form private groups within which participants place wagers against one another on selected bets. This may be useful to participants who would rather compete with a selected group of friends than the whole world.

The participant may form a private betting groups by submitting an appropriate request to the House 102 listing the proposed members ofthe group. When the House 102 approves, it creates a unique alias for the group and makes it possible for members ofthe group to place wagers that become part of a pool separate from the pool of public wagers.

Only members of that group may view that group's odds.

From the foregoing, it will be appreciated that the techniques and the system ofthe present invention are novel and offers advantages in the field of wagering and poll taking. As shown in the drawings and explained above, the present invention is embodied in a method of and system for combining poll-taking with wagering techniques to provide incentive for the participant to provide thoughtful responses. By allowing wagering on the participant's responses to the survey questions, the system ofthe present invention provides incentive for the participant to respond with a thoughtful reply, thereby obtaining more reliable survey results. Also shown and discussed is the present invention as embodied in a method of and system for combining news delivery with wagering techniques to provide incentive for the participant to continue to subscribe and to view the on-line news. By allowing wagering on news stories delivered to the participant by the on-line news service the system of the present invention provides incentive for the subscriber, or viewer, to continuously monitor the news from the on-line news service to track his responses to the questions posed.

Although a specific embodiment ofthe invention is described and illustrated above, the invention is not to be limited to the specific forms or arrangements of parts so described and illustrated. For example, the invention may be implemented within a private, closed network or a combined private-public network rather than through a public network such as the Internet. Also, the wagering system maybe expanded to include additional features and functions in addition to the features and functions discussed above. The invention is limited only by the claims.

Claims

WHAT IS CLAIMED IS:

1. A method for taking wagers on a news event, the method comprising the steps of: sending (204) news story relating to the news event to be displayed for viewing by a participant; sending (204) central question and a list of possible outcomes to be displayed for viewing by said participant; said central question being based on said news story, having an actual outcome, and having a resolution time when said actual outcome can be determined; said central question being formulated as a bet for which said participant may wager points, said bet having expected resolution date and time and at least one expected closing date and time. accepting (206) said participant's selection of a first outcome, said selected first outcome being one of outcomes listed in said list of possible outcomes, said selection accepted during a first period of time; and paying (212) said participant if said selected first outcome is determined to be said actual outcome.

2. The method recited in claim 1 wherein said news story and said central question are sent to be displayed simultaneously.

3. The method recited in claim 1 wherein said news story is displayed as a hyperlink to a full story.

4. The method recited in claim 3 further comprising the step of sending (204) , for said participant's view, references and hyperlinks to related news stories.

5. The method recited in claim 1 wherein said central question is sent as a part of a wager entry form.

6. The method recited in claim 1 further comprising the step of accepting (206) said participant's selection of another outcome during a second period of time.

7. The method recited in claim 1 further comprising the step of accepting (206) wagers from said participant.

8. The method recited in claim 7 further comprising the step of closing (212) the bet retroactively.

9. The method recited in claim 7 wherein said bet maybe identified by an alphanumeric bet ID comprising a word fragment.

10. The method recited in claim 9 further comprising the step of creating and maintaining a wager database comprising following fields: participant IDs of said participant; bet ID of said formulated bet; said selected outcome; number of points wagered; wager type flag indicating type of wager; time and date of said wager was placed; odds of said formulated bet at the time of said wager; and unique wager ID.

11. The method recited in claim 1 wherein said central question is formulated (202) as a nothing-to-lose bet for which said participant may wager no points.

12. The method recited in claim 1 wherein the step of paying said participant comprises step of paying (212) traditional wager reward where, for each point wagered by said participant, said participant is payed 1 + N/Y points where Y is total amount of traditional wagers placed on a winning outcome and N is total amount of traditional wagers placed on opposite outcome.

13. The method recited in claim 1 wherein said selected first outcome is associated with a first point value, and said step of paying said participant comprises step of paying said first point value.

14. The method recited in claim 1 wherein said step of paying (212) said participant comprises step of paying odds sensitive reward wherein said odds sensitive reward is determined by odds of said selected first outcome compared to another outcome that is not selected, said odds determined at a time when said first outcome is selected.

15. A method for taking polls, the method comprising the steps of: sending (204), for display, a central question and a list of possible outcomes, said central question having an actual outcome and an expected resolution date and time when said actual outcome can be determined; accepting (206), during a first period of time, a first participant's selection of a first outcome, from said list of possible outcomes; tallying (208) said first selected outcome with a first set of selections from other participants to obtain first polling results, said first set of selections accepted during said first period of time for a first polling result; accepting (206), during a second period of time, a second participant's selection of a second selected outcome, from said list of possible outcomes; tallying (208) said second selected outcome with a second set of selections from other participants to obtain second polling results, said second set of selections accepted during said second period of time for a second polling result; comparing (210) said first polling results and said second polling results to determine changes of public opinion; paying (212) said first participant reward points if said first selected outcome is said actual outcome.

16. The method recited in claim 15 wherein the step of paying (212) said first participant comprises step of paying traditional wager reward where, for each point wagered by said first participant, said first participant is payed 1 + N/Y points where Y is total amount of traditional wagers placed on a winning outcome and N is total amount of traditional wagers placed on opposite outcome.

17. The method recited in claim 15 wherein said selected first outcome is associated with a first point value, and said step of paying said first participant comprises step of paying said first point value.

18. The method recited in claim 15 wherein said step of paying (212) said first participant comprises step of paying odds sensitive reward wherein said odds sensitive reward is determined by odds of said selected first outcome compared to another outcome that is not selected, said odds determined at a time when said first outcome is selected.

19. A wagering system (102) comprising: processor (110) ; storage (112), connected to said processor; and program (lll, 124, 126, 128) stored in said storage (112), said program comprising instructions for said processor (110), when executed, causing the wagering system (102) to: allow the wagering system (102) to connect with a participant (104) ; register said participant (102) with the system (102); send news story to be displayed for viewing by said participant (104); formulate and send central question and a list of possible outcomes to be displayed; said central question being based on said news story, having an actual outcome, and having a resolution date and time when said actual outcome can be determined; accept said participant's (104) selection of a first outcome, said selected first outcome being one of outcomes listed in said list of possible outcomes, said selection accepted during a first period of time; tally said participant's (104) selection with selections from other participants (104); and pay said participant (104) if said selected first outcome is determined to be said actual outcome.

20. The wagering system (102) recited in claim 19 wherein said storage further comprises registration account data (146) for keeping point accounting for said participant ( 104); web pages (142) for interfacing with said participant (104); participant records (144) for keeping personal information of said participant; and wager data (148, 150) for maintaining wager information comprising: participant IDs of said participant; bet ID of said formulated bet; said selected outcome; number of points wagered; wager type flag indicating type of wager; time and date of said wager was placed; odds of said formulated bet at the time of said wager; and unique wager ID.

21. An article (112) of manufacture for a computer (102), the article (112) comprising: computer memory (112); and program (111, 124, 126, 128) stored in the computer memory (112), the program (111, 124, 126, 128) , when executed, causing the computer (102) to: allow the computer (102) to connect with a participant (104); register said participant (104) with the computer (102); send news story to be displayed for viewing by said participant (104); formulate and send central question and a list of possible outcomes to be displayed; said central question being based on said news story, having an actual outcome, and having a resolution date and time when said actual outcome can be determined; accept said participant's (104) selection of a first outcome, said selected first outcome being one of outcomes listed in said list of possible outcomes, said selection accepted during a first period of time; tally said participant's (104) selection with selections from other participants (104); and pay said participant (104) if said selected first outcome is determined to be said actual outcome.