WO2007005464A3 - Building and using predictive models of current and future surprises - Google Patents

Building and using predictive models of current and future surprises Download PDF

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Publication number
WO2007005464A3
WO2007005464A3 PCT/US2006/025167 US2006025167W WO2007005464A3 WO 2007005464 A3 WO2007005464 A3 WO 2007005464A3 US 2006025167 W US2006025167 W US 2006025167W WO 2007005464 A3 WO2007005464 A3 WO 2007005464A3
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WIPO (PCT)
Prior art keywords
surprising
models
surprises
methods
events
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PCT/US2006/025167
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French (fr)
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WO2007005464A2 (en
Inventor
Eric J Horvitz
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Microsoft Corp
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Publication of WO2007005464A2 publication Critical patent/WO2007005464A2/en
Publication of WO2007005464A3 publication Critical patent/WO2007005464A3/en

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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06N—COMPUTING ARRANGEMENTS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS
    • G06N20/00—Machine learning
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06N—COMPUTING ARRANGEMENTS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS
    • G06N7/00—Computing arrangements based on specific mathematical models
    • G06N7/01—Probabilistic graphical models, e.g. probabilistic networks
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G08—SIGNALLING
    • G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
    • G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
    • G08G1/01—Detecting movement of traffic to be counted or controlled
    • G08G1/0104—Measuring and analyzing of parameters relative to traffic conditions
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F18/00—Pattern recognition
    • G06F18/20—Analysing
    • G06F18/21—Design or setup of recognition systems or techniques; Extraction of features in feature space; Blind source separation
    • G06F18/214—Generating training patterns; Bootstrap methods, e.g. bagging or boosting
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F18/00—Pattern recognition
    • G06F18/20—Analysing
    • G06F18/24—Classification techniques
    • G06F18/241—Classification techniques relating to the classification model, e.g. parametric or non-parametric approaches
    • G06F18/2411—Classification techniques relating to the classification model, e.g. parametric or non-parametric approaches based on the proximity to a decision surface, e.g. support vector machines
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06N—COMPUTING ARRANGEMENTS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS
    • G06N5/00—Computing arrangements using knowledge-based models
    • G06N5/02—Knowledge representation; Symbolic representation
    • G06N5/022—Knowledge engineering; Knowledge acquisition
    • G06N5/025—Extracting rules from data

Abstract

Methods are described for identifying events that would be considered surprising by people and identifying how and when to transmit information to a user about situations that they would likely find surprising. Additionally, the methods of identifying surprising situations can be used to build a case library of surprising events, joined with a set of observations before the surprising events occurred. Statistical machine learning methods can be applied with data from the case library to build models that can predict when a user will likely be surprised at future times. One or more models of context-sensitive expectations of people, a view of the current world, and methods for recording streams or events before surprises occur, and for building predictive models from a case library of surprises and such historical observations can be employed. The models of current and future surprises can be coupled with display and alerting machinery.
PCT/US2006/025167 2005-06-30 2006-06-27 Building and using predictive models of current and future surprises WO2007005464A2 (en)

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Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
US11/172,581 US7519564B2 (en) 2004-11-16 2005-06-30 Building and using predictive models of current and future surprises
US11/172,581 2005-06-30

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Publication Number Publication Date
WO2007005464A2 WO2007005464A2 (en) 2007-01-11
WO2007005464A3 true WO2007005464A3 (en) 2007-04-12

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WO (1) WO2007005464A2 (en)

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