Lionel Messi’s move to Inter Miami isn’t even done yet, and the locals are already focused on the standings.
As Messi announced his intention to sign for the struggling MLS club on Wednesday, Miami sat at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings.
Messi is, you know, Messi, but the fact is that he’s joining a club that has lost five straight in league play. The Herons fired head coach Phil Neville days before Messi said he wanted to join the team, while the club’s midfield has been gutted by injuries. Only three teams have scored fewer goals than the paltry 15 Miami has managed in 16 games so far this season.
That has left locals realistic about how difficult Messi’s task will be. Miami residents like Sergio Agüero took one look at the standings, and they knew it’s going to be a tough road ahead.
Wait…hold on. Sergio Agüero, like “Kun” Agüero?
Yes, Messi’s former Argentina teammate is now just a Miamian, living out his twilight years as so many retirees do in the south Florida sunshine. That leaves him with plenty of time to ponder things like how Inter Miami can make up the six-point gap between them and a playoff spot.
“He follows me everywhere,” Agüero joked in an interview with ESPN Argentina. “I sent him a message with a screenshot of the Eastern Conference standings and I said ‘Your team is behind! You have to move up to 8th [or] 9th!'”
Per the former Manchester City star, Messi’s reply was to laugh and say “We have to make the playoffs!”
Miami’s path to the MLS playoffs is tough
On one hand that means Messi already understands MLS, the league where finishing as one of the league’s top 18 teams can be used as an argument that a given season was a good one.
It could all end in a mid-week loss on the road against a team that lost 14 games, but in MLS, “we made the playoffs” is still league shorthand for “we aren’t embarrassingly bad.”
On the other, the odds are very much against Miami, even with Messi in the fold. For one, it’s not like he can help the cause any time soon. He’s not under contract yet, and even if he were to sign later on Friday, the Herons have at least four games to play before the transfer window opens, and two of them are on the road (where Miami is 1W-0D-6L this season) against the New England Revolution and Philadelphia Union, both strong opponents.
Even if we’re generous and assume that interim coach Javier Morales schemes up a way for Miami to get four points in those games (which is in line with their 0.94 points-per-game pace), it’s widely assumed that Messi won’t be actually suiting up until Miami’s Leagues Cup matches, or possibly even in August. That means two more league fixtures against teams currently in playoff position — at D.C. United and at St. Louis City SC — aren’t likely to involve Messi.
In other words, it’s likely that Miami will have roughly a dozen MLS matches left once Messi actually steps onto the field in pink and black, and are on course to have around 20 points or so by then. The playoff race in this league is forgiving — again, nine of the East’s 15 teams will be playoff teams — but it’s not that forgiving.
That set of games features a very mixed group of opponents. The bad news? Miami will play Nashville SC, Los Angeles FC, and FC Cincinnati, teams that would be favored to wipe the floor with the hapless pre-Messi Herons. They also have a U.S. Open Cup semifinal at Cincinnati that comes sandwiched mid-week between two league games, stretching an already thin roster.
The good news is that Miami will have some opportunities to quickly shift their circumstances. They play Charlotte FC (who hold the final playoff spot at the moment) twice, and have five more games against teams that currently sit outside the postseason places.
In other words, as much as Miami has placed so much hope on Messi (and possibly Sergo Busquets), a playoff place probably hinges on getting some wins in before their reinforcements arrive, and then going on a spectacular run in the season’s final weeks.
