In the first day of trading since the weekend, yesterday Activision stock closed down nearly 7%, continuing a decline that first began in October after Black Ops 4 sales disappointed investors, but now one amplified further by an especially rough BlizzCon.
Much of the bad press and investor shakiness can be attributed to the main controversy coming out of BlizzCon that consumed pretty much the entire industry for several days thereafter. That was the announcement of Diablo Immortal, a mobile game, and the non-announcement of Diablo 4, which is in the works, and will be the next game in the series, yet Blizzard did not want to reveal or acknowledge it at the show as it’s still too far out, according to them.
Investors tend to be a reactive bunch, but even still, this is a pretty sharp decline, and shows the power of fan anger, which can translate not just into substantive changes in the industry (see everyone fleeing from loot boxes this year) but also pretty stiff market drops if the outrage spooks investors.
While I maintain that most reactions to Diablo Immortal were over the top, the fact remains that Blizzard definitely botched this reveal (something as simple as a Diablo 4 title card could have saved them tens of millions of dollars, it seems), and really, this BlizzCon in general was a weak showing for them.
That’s the larger story I think all this Diablo Immortal stuff is masking. Everyone is asking why Blizzard closed the show with Diablo Immortal, but that’s because…I mean, there really wasn’t that much else to show off.
The biggest announcement of the entire event was the Warcraft 3 remaster, a re-release of a 16 year old game. Elsewhere, we had a new WoW patch, a new Overwatch character and new additions to Heroes of the Storm. That was essentially it.
I have a…somewhat general feeling of unease about Blizzard in general lately. This BlizzCon reminded me that most of their offerings feel somewhat stale at this point, at least to me personally. I know all their games still have their devoted fans, but they do not feel all that relevant in the current cultural conversation with blockbuster new releases every few weeks. Starcraft might as well not exist anymore outside of its esports scene. Heroes of the Storm was always playing catch-up to DOTA and League, and now MOBAs are mostly out of fashion. Hearthstone continues to be fine, but it’s a game I had to let go because it simply cost too much to keep playing. And even Overwatch, what’s more or less Blizzard’s flagship title in the current era, does not generate nearly the hype it used to with new announcements. It’s sort of in League of Legends maintenance mode, simply rotating in new characters and events, having “won” the hero shooter war against all comers, but now the rest of the industry has moved on to battle royale.
This is why a Diablo 4 announcement would have been so significant, a truly new title in a sea of mere updates, but that game feels like it’s years away, and reportedly has gone through some pretty major overhauls behind the scenes, including a number of director changes, which isn’t the most reassuring.
In short, it feels like Blizzard is behind the curve, which is not a position it usually finds itself in. This is a developer that aims to be number one in every genre it dips its toe in, and it has previously achieved that with MMOs, RTSes, CCGs, ARPGs and hero shooters with WoW, Starcraft/Warcraft, Hearthstone, Diablo and Overwatch respectively. But now, these days? The most popular games right now are single player story-driven games (Red Dead, Spider-Man, God of War), PvE shooters (Destiny, The Division, Anthem) and battle royale games (Fortnite, PUBG, Blackout). Blizzard doesn’t have entries in any of those categories, even if Activision itself has a couple.
Maybe this is just an off year for Blizzard, but I think the company’s current problems run deeper than just a bad mobile game announcement.
Follow me on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram. Read my new sci-fi thriller novel Herokiller, available now in print and online. I also wrote The Earthborn Trilogy.
