New York Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole delivers against the Seattle Mariners in the first inning of a ... [+]
Return on investment is a critical component of how most professional sports franchises define success, but it takes on a greater significance with the New York Yankees given their prestige and championship pedigree. Besides an offseason spending spree of $573.5 million in free agency, the Yankees avoided an arbitration hearing with second baseman Gleyber Torres and paid a $9.7 million Competitive Balance Tax penalty on a $267.75 million payroll last season according to the Associated Press. At the outset of spring training, it is business as usual at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa in terms of confidence and expectations. Amid the disappointing news regarding right-handed pitcher Frankie Montas’ upcoming arthroscopic shoulder surgery, the question of importance is have the Yankees done enough to close the sizable gap between them and the world champion Houston Astros.
The addition of left-handed starting pitcher Carlos Rodón is a necessity at $162 million over the next six years if the Yankees aspire to supplant the Astros in pursuit of their 28th world championship. Besides a dominating four-seam fastball and slider accompanied by a fiery personality, Rodón’s value to the Yankees goes well beyond an impressive pitching repertoire and intolerance for losing. The 30-year-old will also complement right-handed pitcher Gerrit Cole through friendly competition as they strive to become the best starting pitching duo in Major League Baseball.
As Rodón acclimates to life as a Yankee and cultivates a relationship with pitching coach Matt Blake, Cole needs to remind everyone of his status as an elite starting pitcher. Regardless of leading Major League Baseball with 257 strikeouts and breaking the Yankees’ single season record previously held by the legendary left-handed pitcher Ron Guidry (248) last season, Cole was not included in MLB Network’s “Top 10 Starting Pitchers Right Now.” Rodón was ranked third on the list and accumulated the third most strikeouts (237) in Major League Baseball last season according to Baseball-Reference. Is Cole being underappreciated and if so, why?
The 32-year-old Cole is embarking upon a critical phase in his career. He has yet to win a Cy Young Award after finishing in the top five of voting in four of the past five seasons. Along with a fourth place finish while pitching for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2015, Cole has been in the top five of Cy Young Award voting five times over the past decade. Some will say he is the best starting pitcher in baseball who has yet to win the prestigious award. There is tremendous comfort in having Cole being the ace of the pitching staff for the Yankees, but there is also a sense that everyone wants to see more out of him.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 14: Gerrit Cole #45 of the New York Yankees reacts after a double play to ... [+]
Cole has an opt out clause in his nine-year, $324 million contract after the 2024 season according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. At 34-years-old, Cole could elect for free agency unless the Yankees void Cole’s opt out decision and extend his contract for an additional year at $36 million. This would cover Cole’s age 38 season. Recent contracts for starting right-handed pitchers of a certain age such as Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander could provide a blueprint for how Cole will confront this decision provided his performance remains at an elite level over the next two seasons.
Since his 2020 arrival in the Bronx through the conclusion of last season, Cole has led Major League Baseball in strikeouts (594) and fourth in innings pitched (455) according to FanGraphs. However, his Achilles’ heel has come in the form of home runs. Through 75 games started, Cole has surrendered 71 home runs, fourth most in Major League Baseball during this period. Last season, Cole allowed a career-high 33 home runs which also led the American League.
Two likely reasons why attention is being paid to other starting pitchers right now rather than Cole are advanced metrics such as adjusted earned run average (ERA+) and fielding independent pitching (FIP). In 2021, Cole was runner-up to American League Cy Young Award winner left-handed pitcher Robbie Ray. In 30 starts, he posted a 133 ERA+ which was 33 percent better than league average while it had dropped significantly to 111 ERA+ last season according to Baseball-Reference. Cole’s 2.92 FIP in 2021 was the fourth best among 38 qualified starting pitchers according to FanGraphs but climbed to 3.47 FIP last season and was 21st out of 45 qualified starting pitchers. Rodón’s 2.25 FIP led Major League Baseball last season and was complemented by a strong 140 ERA+.
Cole has experienced periods of excellence with the Yankees, but there is an insatiable appetite for more given his vast talent and perfectionist tendencies. Cole’s cerebral approach to pitching begins with a propensity to dominate opponents through art and analytics. Sometimes, it appears as if he is battling himself instead of the opposing ball club. As intoxicating as Cole is, his résumé with the Yankees is incomplete given the expectations that accompany being the first starting pitcher to receive a contract more than $300 million in value. A Cy Young Award might quell some of the arguments regarding return on investment, but ultimately Cole’s legacy in pinstripes will be judged on how integral he is to winning one or more world championships.
New York Yankees' Carlos Rodon, center, poses for a photo with manager Aaron Boone and pitching ... [+]
The pairing of Cole and Rodón atop the Yankees’ rotation reminds fans of another famous starting pitching duo involving the Yankees’ ace. According to Baseball-Reference, Cole and Verlander had combined for 133 starts where they struck out 1,192 batters over 849.2 innings and achieved a 72-25 record (.742 winning percentage) in two seasons while playing for the Astros (2018-2019). In 2019, they joined Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling of the 2002 Arizona Diamondbacks in becoming only the second pair of teammates to each surpass 300 strikeouts in the same season. FanGraphs is projecting that Cole (249) and Rodón (234) will combine for 483 strikeouts this season with Cole leading Major League Baseball in the statistical category.
Cole and Rodón have the potential of becoming the best starting pitching duo in the sport regardless of the attention being paid to crosstown rivals Scherzer and Verlander. According to Baseball-Reference, there have only been two occasions where the Yankees have had two starting pitchers surpass 200 strikeouts in the same season. The last time this had occurred was in 2001 with right-handed pitchers Roger Clemens (213) and Hall of Famer Mike Mussina (214) over a combined 67 starts. The other had occurred in 1904 when the Yankees were called the Highlanders and right-handed pitchers Jack Powell (202) and Hall of Famer Jack Chesbro (239) achieved this feat while appearing in a combined 96 starts (102 ball games).
Could Carlos Rodón unlock something in Gerrit Cole that has been dormant since the days of competing against former teammate Justin Verlander? It might seem blasphemous to ask a question of this nature especially when it applies to an elite starting pitcher. However, friendly competition provides talented people with an opportunity to discover new pathways toward success. Cole’s status among the game’s finest shouldn’t be questioned but expect Rodón’s competitive spirit to positively inspire him to achieve a higher level of excellence with hopefully a Cy Young Award on the horizon.
