Thoughts as the Penguins enter frantic finish in playoff race

The Pittsburgh Penguins had a huge night on Thursday in their quest for a playoff spot. Their 6-5 overtime win against the Detroit Red Wings, combined with the Washington Capitals 4-2 loss to the Buffalo Sabres, has put the Penguins into a situation where they now have a better than 57 percent chance to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs. It is a staggering turnaround considering where this team was just a couple of weeks ago, and it has put them back into a position where they pretty much control their own path to the playoffs.

If they win three games, they are in.

Even if they do not, they still have a chance depending on what happens around them.

Some quick thoughts before the Penguins continue their push on Saturday night against the Boston Bruins.

1. They were probably very fortunate to win on Thursday

The funny thing about Thursday’s win is that it was probably their worst game during this 10-game point streak. Even though they scored six goals, I did not always like the way they played in the offensive zone and did not really sustain a ton of shifts against a bad defensive team, while they also went through extended stretches where I thought Detroit carried the play. There are also not enough words to describe how poorly they managed the game in key situations, especially as it relates to Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang. Karlsson alone almost cost them a win before redeeming himself in overtime. The way this team give up multiple goal leads remains absolutely baffling. Literally no lead is safe here. That is the bad news. The good news is they got that game out of their system and still walked away with two points.

2. Saturday is a huge day in the playoff race

Winning three games is the easiest path. It is not the only path. There is a chance that by Saturday night the Penguins’ magic number to clinching a playoff spot could be down to just one point.

Detroit (vs. Toronto) and Washington (vs. Tampa Bay) losses, combined with a Penguins win, would leave the Penguins in a spot where they would literally just need one point over their final two games (home against Nashville and at the New York Islanders) to clinch a playoff spot. How wild would that be if they could clinch a playoff spot in the regular season home finale? Or if that Islanders game at the end of the season turned out to be meaningless?

On the contrary, Detroit and Washington wins combined with a Penguins loss could put them into a really tough spot.

Saturday is another huge swing of a day.

3. The Alex Nedeljkovic magic might be running low

Alex Nedeljkovic has been one of the big driving forces behind this surge back into playoff contention, starting each of the past 10 games. For the most part, he has been really good in solidifying the goaltending. I have said they should keep playing him until he gives them a reason not to play him.

We might be getting close to that.

After Thursday he has allowed 16 goals in his past five games, has had a save percentage over .900 in just one of them.

He did not get much help defensively on Thursday, but pucks are starting to find their way into the back of the net with a little more regularity.

I suspect that as long as he keeps winning and collecting points he stays in the starting lineup.

4. Sidney Crosby is still playing at an absurd level

There are not enough words to describe him right now. His entire season has been remarkable considering his age and how he is simply not slowing down.

But with the Penguins facing must-win games over the past two weeks he has gone to an entirely different level.

He has 20 points over the past 10 games, and on Thursday night recorded the 1,000th assist of his career and moved into sole possession of 10th place on the NHL’s all-time scoring list.

He will get significant MVP votes if the Penguins make the playoffs.

5. The bottom-six still is not scoring

This has been a pretty constant problem for two seasons now, but almost all of the Penguins offense during this recent run has come from the top-two lines. Granted, they are playing great, and the addition of Michael Bunting has really seemed to rejuvenate both Evgeni Malkin and Rickard Rakell on the second line. The Penguins could still use a few more goals from their third-and-fourth lines.

Jeff Carter’s shorthanded goal on Thursday was a very pleasant surprise though, and also a pretty sensational play from start-to-finish.

The good news, however, is that the bottom-six is at least defending better, and in a weird twist is actually playing the way I imagine Kyle Dubas and the front office thought it would at the start of the year with a different set of players.

It was clear from the very beginning that their goal was to try and build a defensive minded bottom-six that could simply skate to a 0-0 tie while the top two lines and power play carried the offense. It did not always work that way.

Now that Noel Accairi, Jansen Harkins and Matt Nieto have been replaced by the likes of Emil Bemstrom, Jesse Puljujarvi, Valtteri Puustinen and Reilly Smith they are kind of doing what was expected — defending and mostly playing to a 0-0 tie.

Prior to this recent 10-game stretch they had been outscored by seven goals for the season and were allowing more than 2.64 expected goals per 60 minutes.

Over the past 10 games the bottom-six has outscored teams by a 4-2 margin and is allowing just 2.33 expected goals per 60 minutes.

6. The Puustinen-Eller-Smith line has been solid

On the subject of the bottom-six, the Puustinen-Eller-Smith line has, quite literally, played to a 0-0 tie over the past 10 games scoring zero goals and allowing zero goals.

For the season, that trio has played 140 minutes of 5-on-5 ice-time together, outscored teams by a 5-2 margin, owned a 56 percent expected goals share and done all of that while getting only 35 percent offensive zone starts.

I would still like to see more offense, but I can not really complain with the way they have played. They did not allow Detroit to get a single shot attempt when they were together on Thursday night.

Smith has still been one of the biggest disappointments on the team overall this season, but I do think he has played a lot better recently even if the offense is not there.